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According to the research report released by SDIC Securities on December 8, if we want to treat this wave of "new year's market" with "innovation", it is necessary for the US dollar index to clearly turn from strong to weak and the fiscal expenditure to enter a clear expansion cycle. The pricing of risk preference turning to fundamentals may have to be further confirmed in the second quarter of next year (strong dollar turning to weak dollar+stimulus policy effectively reversing domestic demand). Looking back at history, after M1 rebounded from the bottom for two consecutive months, the market sector represented by consumption and pro-cyclical sectors will start pricing around fundamentals, which also means that if the growth rate of M1 continues to rebound in November, this extreme differentiation pricing model of large and small markets is expected to be gradually reversed.For the reason of the market style deduction, Zhao Xi, the investment director of Tuopai Fund, told the First Financial Reporter that since the macroeconomic data has not improved significantly, it is difficult for the macro economy to support the core assets, and most investors' sense of the whole economy is not high enough. Although the weighted blue chips and fund heavyweight stocks have valuation advantages, they lack rising logic. In this context, hot money and new retail investors have repeatedly speculated on the emerging science and technology around the policy.Let's look at a set of data first. The average increase of the 100 stocks with the smallest market value on September 23 to December 9 is 141%. The 100 stocks with the largest market value closed on September 23, and the average increase by December 9 was 21.5%.

What are the reasons why more resilient blue chips are not popular in the market? Many people in the industry interviewed by reporters believe that the macro-economy has not yet recovered significantly, and the uncertainty of the pace of monetary and fiscal policies next year has led to the fact that although the weighted blue-chip stocks have a low valuation advantage, they have not obtained the unanimous expectation of funds.Small-cap style clearly outperforms.

It is worth noting that the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. According to industry analysis, the overall tone of this meeting was positive, and the macro policy is expected to continue to increase next year. The meeting put forward "strengthening the regulation of unconventional and countercyclical policies", which was the first time that a major meeting mentioned the word "unconventional", or indicated that the follow-up policy measures would be more diversified. The importance of domestic demand expansion is further highlighted, and the scope and intensity of subsequent consumption promotion policies are expected to increase.Compared with small and medium-sized stocks, large-cap stocks have always been known for their stable operating performance and higher dividends. According to the analysis and research report of Guotai Junan's third quarterly report, the performance of all A-shares declined in the first three quarters. In the third quarter, the net profit growth rate of all A-share non-financial and non-petroleum and petrochemical listed companies (hereinafter referred to as "all A-shares and two non-shares") was -10.8% year-on-year, which was further enlarged compared with the second quarter of 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -8.0%, and negative growth for seven consecutive quarters. In terms of revenue, the cumulative growth rate of all A companies in the third quarter of 2024 was -1.6%, and it was -0.7% in the second quarter of 2024, with an enlarged decline.When will the market style switch?